Hungarian political analyst Gábor Török has delivered a strict assessment of Fidesz, arguing that the party’s failure to renew itself following its election defeat could prove “almost as tragic” as the result itself.
Writing on Facebook, Török said the absence of both new leadership and fresh political ideas is causing the party to waste what he considers a crucial period for rebuilding support. His comments come after two of Hungary’s most respected polling organisations published surveys showing the Tisza Party maintaining a commanding lead over Fidesz.
Polls show overwhelming lead for Tisza
This week, both Medián and the 21 Research Centre (21 Kutatóközpont) released opinion polls pointing to exceptionally strong support for the Tisza Party.
According to Medián’s survey, Tisza enjoys the backing of 60% of the overall population, rising to 71% among decided voters and 73% among certain voters. Fidesz, by comparison, was supported by 18% of the overall population and 21% of both decided and certain voters.
Meanwhile, the 21 Research Centre measured Tisza at 57% among the overall population and 67% among decided voters, while Fidesz stood at 20% and 24%, respectively. Summing up the findings, Török noted that
“six out of every ten Hungarian voters support Tisza, while only two remain behind Fidesz.”
‘The honeymoon will not last forever’
Török stressed that such exceptionally high polling numbers are unlikely to remain indefinitely. He recalled that after Fidesz’s landslide victory in 2010, the party also enjoyed a prolonged honeymoon period before public support gradually declined.
Medián measured Fidesz at 50% of the total population in June 2010, but that figure had fallen to 21% by June 2012. However, he argued that what happens after a governing party’s initial honeymoon depends heavily on the strength and credibility of the opposition.
A missed opportunity for Fidesz
According to Török, Fidesz’s biggest mistake since the election has been its failure to begin rebuilding immediately.
“From this perspective, what has happened – or rather what has not happened – within Fidesz since the election is almost as tragic for the opposition party as the election result itself,” he wrote. “The complete lack of both personal and substantive renewal is simply turning this period into wasted time.”
He argued that if the party had already introduced new leaders and a new political direction, its polling numbers might not be any stronger today, and could even be weaker in the short term. However, when public opinion eventually begins to shift away from the governing party, Fidesz would at least have laid the foundations for recovery.
Warning against delaying reform
Török also criticised suggestions that the party can postpone major decisions for another year. He warned that by delaying organisational and political renewal, Fidesz risks missing the ideal window to rebuild. Without meaningful change, he argued, any future swing in public opinion is likely to come more slowly and may ultimately benefit someone other than Fidesz.
Read about the newest polls showing a staggering decline in Fidesz support here: Where will Péter Magyar’s real opposition come from? Nearly all Hungarians now back Tisza, new poll suggests
In normal countries when a long time leader loses decisively in an election, and this was the biggest electoral victory by a party since 1990, the losing leader resigns. What did Fidesz do? They kept a festering zombie (Orban) as their leader guaranteed to scare away voters forever. Orban is the best thing going for Peter Magyar and Tisza to retain power. What this political analyst needs to address is how do you get a criminal organization run by a Mafia leader to reform itself to actually become a credible alternative to the present governing party? It’s not going to happen.
Fidesz is merely window dressing in its current incarnation. A chief and fraction leader shouldering a 1 year tour of duty, along with well-known veterans like Lazar and Szijjarto. I think they’ve been coerced into it solely to ensure the party doesn’t completely disintegrate in a matter of weeks. I see no signs of renewal or even wanting to renew, they know the party’s over; Fidesz was only ever the Orban party and orientated around keeping him in power for life as well as enriching his friends and family. Now that none of the above is possible and it finds itself politically squeezed between with a centre-right Tisza and far-right Mi Hazank, their ongoing survival is pointless for both the Fidesz leading lights and the electorate alike. It’ll come as a cold shower for the party faithful when the old guard abandon the movement and I’d expect the majority of the voters that presently support them will end up voting for Mi Hazank at the next election, more moderate voters having long since abandoned them for Tisza.