Hungary may have little more than a year left of Russian gas under current European Union rules. But a recent diplomatic dispute with Moscow has raised a more immediate question: could Russia decide to cut supplies before the EU’s ban takes effect?
A diplomatic row has put Hungary’s energy dependence on Russia back in the spotlight
On 8 September, Hungarian Foreign Minister Anita Orbán announced that Budapest would expel ten employees of the Russian embassy, saying Hungarian authorities had found they had engaged in activities incompatible with their diplomatic status.
Moscow called the move unfriendly and promised a response, prompting speculation that retaliation could extend beyond diplomacy to oil or gas supplies. The following day, Russian gas deliveries to Hungary fell from the usual 22 million cubic metres to around 11 million. However, there was an important detail: the reduction was not ordered by Moscow. It was caused by planned Hungarian maintenance.
Gas flows were cut for scheduled maintenance
Hungary’s gas transmission operator FGSZ had already announced that capacity at the Kiskundorozsma 2 entry point from Serbia would be reduced by half between 9 and 12 September. Other maintenance work was also planned on the Hungarian-Croatian connection at Drávaszerdahely. Normal operations resumed on 12 September.
There was therefore no evidence that Moscow had retaliated by deliberately reducing gas supplies. Nevertheless, the timing highlighted how vulnerable Hungary could be to a genuine interruption.
Russian gas already has an expiry date
Under the EU’s REPowerEU framework, imports of Russian pipeline gas and LNG are due to be prohibited across the bloc by autumn 2027. This will also affect Hungary and Slovakia, the two EU countries that have continued to receive significant Russian pipeline gas.
The decisive moment is expected around 1 October 2027, or shortly afterwards when the gas storage season ends. That leaves roughly a year. The question is therefore not simply whether Russian gas will eventually disappear from Hungary, but whether Moscow has any reason to stop supplying it earlier.
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Why Russia may keep the gas flowing
Hungarian energy-market experts generally believe Russia has little incentive to voluntarily abandon one of its last major European pipeline customers. The reason is primarily economic. With Russia’s wartime economy heavily focused on financing the war effort, giving up revenue from Hungarian gas sales would hardly be attractive.
According to Telex, Russia may also hope that European-Russian energy relations could eventually improve. Hungary and Slovakia remain among the last significant destinations for Russian pipeline gas in the EU. For Hungary, however, an abrupt interruption would still be painful.
Pipeline gas from Russia has been commercially attractive because the supplier effectively covers the transport cost to the delivery point. Alternative gas may be available at similar market prices, but transporting it to Hungary can add roughly 5–10 per cent to the cost.
Could Hungary replace Russian supplies?
The end of Russian gas would not mean Hungary simply runs out of energy. Gas currently reaches Hungary from Serbia, Romania, Croatia and Austria, with the Serbian route by far the most important. The southern connection carries Russian gas via the Balkan branch of TurkStream.
If Russian supplies disappeared, increased capacity from Romania and Croatia could help replace them, while Austrian imports could also contribute. The main challenge would be ensuring sufficient infrastructure and competitive prices rather than finding gas in absolute terms.
Could Russian gas be disguised?
One possible workaround could involve Turkey, which is becoming an increasingly important gas hub with supplies from several countries. However, turning Russian gas into “Turkish” gas is far from straightforward. The relevant TurkStream infrastructure does not simply connect Russia’s gas directly to Turkey’s domestic system in a way that would allow such a switch.
Additional infrastructure, including compressor capacity, would be required, while Russia and Turkey would also need to agree on how the resulting revenues were divided. Another possibility would be declaring Russian gas as originating elsewhere.
However, EU rules are expected to put considerable pressure on traders, who could face serious consequences if they falsely declared the origin of supplies. Gas is also harder to trace than oil because molecules from different sources can become mixed within interconnected networks.
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The countdown is already under way
The latest diplomatic dispute may therefore be less important than the bigger trend: Hungary’s Russian gas relationship already has an expiry date. Industry sources suggest Budapest has increasingly accepted that Russian gas imports will end in autumn 2027, with no known major Hungarian initiative currently seeking to extend the EU timetable. Russia could still cut supplies earlier, but it may have little economic incentive to do so.
For Hungary, the loss of Russian gas would bring higher costs and logistical challenges, but it would not necessarily create a severe supply crisis. The real test over the next year will be whether Hungary can replace Russian gas without compromising energy security or paying a much higher price.
Read also: Péter Magyar would break away from Russian oil, but expects something in return from Brussels
