Gas imports from Russia via the southern route fell to around half their usual level just one day after Hungary expelled ten Russian embassy staff; however, the timing appears to have been coincidental.

Russian gas deliveries suddenly plunge

The amount of natural gas entering Hungary from the south fell sharply last week, reaching levels not seen for years, according to Hungarian economic news outlet G7.

Between Wednesday and Friday, just 11.6 million cubic metres of gas per day entered Hungary via the southern route from Serbia. Since only Russian gas enters Hungary from Serbia, the drop effectively meant that Russian gas deliveries through this route were cut by roughly half.

The timing immediately attracted attention. The decline came just one day after Hungary’s Foreign Ministry expelled ten employees of the Russian embassy, which raised the question: maybe Moscow had responded by reducing gas supplies?

However, the available evidence suggests that the two events were not connected.

A technical restriction was already planned

The southern route has become highly important for Hungary’s gas supply in recent years. Most Russian gas imports now arrive through the TurkStream pipeline, which runs under the Black Sea before passing through Bulgaria and Serbia.

The pipeline has generally operated close to full capacity for around three years, apart from scheduled maintenance periods.

But according to G7, Hungary’s gas network operator, FGSZ, had already included a restriction for this period in its annual maintenance schedule. The document shows that the relevant cross-border capacity would operate at 50 per cent.

In other words, the sharp decline appears to have been the result of a planned technical restriction rather than a political response from Russia.

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Russian senator had warned of gas consequences

The possibility of Russian retaliation was particularly notable because a Russian senator had warned about potential consequences following the expulsions.

According to reporting by Világgazdaság, the senator said the diplomatic move could have “unpleasant consequences” for Budapest, including a reduction or even a complete halt to Russian gas deliveries through the TurkStream pipeline.

The timing of the subsequent drop in deliveries therefore fuelled speculation about a possible connection.

However, industry sources and experts contacted by G7 were initially unable to identify a clear explanation for the sudden fall. Most ultimately considered technical or commercial factors more likely, with the planned technical restriction providing the apparent answer.

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Gas flows have since recovered

The reduced imports did not last. Although the southern route was still not operating at full capacity over the weekend, gas flows have since largely returned to their usual levels. G7 noted that total Russian gas imports for last week amounted to around 122 million cubic metres, making it the lowest weekly figure in almost three years, excluding scheduled maintenance-related shutdowns.

Hungary’s state-owned MVM buys Russian gas from Gazprom under a long-term agreement, while traders have also purchased billions of cubic metres of Russian gas on the spot market in recent years because of its competitive price.

It is therefore possible that short-term commercial purchases were particularly affected by the temporary capacity restriction. However, because Russian gas currently enters Hungary through this southern route, the reduction would have affected at least some of the gas purchased by MVM as well.

All in all, the available evidence points to an unfortunate coincidence rather than a Russian response to Hungary’s diplomatic move.