weather

The future of Hungarian weather: cold blasts and disappearing lakes

As a result of climate change, meridional waves that already have unpredictable effects on our weather will further increase in size and will cause more extreme consequences in the winter periods, explains an expert to 24.

In the coming years, our winters will have significantly more periods of extreme weather. Even though winters in general will be “quiet and mild”, they will be more often interrupted by cold blasts. These phenomena, although short in duration, can be expected anytime from September to April.

As meteorologist László Molnár explains, this change, which is further triggered by climate change, in short has to do with differences in temperature between the North Pole and the Equator, and with what are called meridional flows.

Triggered by these differences, a meridional flow is a “vertical wave” that runs along the Earth’s longitudinal circles. When it goes north, it carries hot air from the Equator, and when it goes toward the South, it carries cold air from the North pole.

In winter, when there is a larger difference in temperature between the North Pole and the Equator, these waves have a higher amplitude, triggering more extreme weather conditions.

“Depending on which side of the wave we are standing on, we can either be hit by a polar cold wave or an equatorial heatwave.”

And how does climate change come in the picture? While the North Pole remains cold and dark in the winter, the Earth’s surface on the Equator has a rising temperature due to the greenhouse effect: this causes meridional waves that have more energy and reach an even farther distance.

Molnár explains that our continental climate is also affected by zonal (latitudinal, west-east) flows, but these are not as extreme as the meridional ones, and their effects are rather easy to predict.

Mild winters are in fact the result of climate change, too. As Molnár says, cold waves used to be more intense in the mid-20th century; we will be more likely to encounter unusually hot weather during the winter months.

“We are lucky if there will be a white Christmas every ten years […], and our grandchildren will probably not get to see any big Hungarian lakes.”

He is also convinced that there will be new highs in temperature by 2025, breaking Hungary’s current record of 41.9°C from 2007. The coldest ever measured temperature in the country was -35°C in 1940. Two famously cold settlements are Zabar and Szécsény, although as he explains, their stations are not old enough yet to provide sufficient data for scientific research.

Next week: the end of Indian summer

Following a sunny and rather warm period, next week’s weather will be characterised by significant precipitation, with temperatures not reaching higher than 15–17°C. In the morning hours, it can even freeze in some places.

Read also2019 hottest year in Hungary since 1901, says weather service!

October 15, 2020

Climate change – This can be expected in Hungary

Theoretical physicists have calculated that there is a maximum 10% probability that human civilisation will not collapse in the next few decades. Concerning this estimation, Hungarian researchers were asked about the prospects of their home country. Let us see what climate changes can be expected in Hungary and around the world.

According to the experts, humans have primary responsibility for global warming that will presumably lead to climate crisis within a few decades.

As István Bart, Head of the Institute of Climate Strategy says, in the last 20 years, the worst-case scenarios outlined by researchers have been realised. While he previously believed that only his children would feel the catastrophic effects of climate change, since 2018 he thinks it will already happen in his life. The Hungarian expert also added that the 1.5-degree warming target set in the Paris Climate Agreement cannot be met with the current commitments.

According to András Lukács, Chairman of the Air Working Group,

“we are rushing into disaster…. It is not possible to predict exactly when the disaster will come; nature tolerates for a while, and then suddenly there is a transition to a new situation – which one will experience as a climate catastrophe.”

As the Hungarian news portal MagyarHang reports, it is important to mention that increasing global average temperatures do not mean the same thing on every part of the planet. Some areas of the Earth may be affected better, while others may be less warm so that the effects may be different.

Effects in the Carpathian Basin, including Hungary:

The average temperature could rise by 1.5-2°C by 2050 and 3.5-4°C by 2100.
Due to anticyclonic effects, the number of late-spring frosts may increase slightly.
The region may become a water-poor country in the future, and groundwater levels are falling drastically.
The annual number of frosty days has decreased by 16 days since the beginning of the last century, while the number of heat days has increased by 11. This trend is expected to continue in the future, with more heat days, hot days and heatwaves. This is a significant problem as the number of deaths due to heatwaves in Budapest has risen by 30% in recent years.
These effects are not good for any of our main cereals. Wheat yields could fall by 8% by the middle of the century and 21% by the end of the century.

In the European temperate zone:

The temperature is expected to rise in all seasons, so there will be less frost and snow in the winter.
It will be more and more common for summer temperatures to reach 35-40°C, and there will be more and more summer heat alarms.
Lightning floods can increase soil erosion, especially in mountains and hillsides.
Cities with few green spaces and old canal systems are expected to experience more urban lightning floods.
With a small decrease/increase in annual precipitation, in many places the temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall may shift to extremes, fundamentally endangering food security, but even our drinking water supplies in the long run.
According to data from 2010-2016, economic losses due to weather and climate extremes in the European Union already amount to € 12.8 billion a year, and could reach € 190 billion by 2090; while weather-related disasters – instead of the current one in twenty Europeans – can affect up to two out of three by the end of the century.

Global effects:

Entire regions could become depopulated, especially in the Middle East and South-West and Central Asia, leaving 250 million people, or even a billion, as ‘climate refugees’. This also means that large areas will have to be excluded from farming due to the placement of refugees. The process is already being experienced: according to UN data for 2018, 20 million people have had to flee their homes due to natural disasters caused by climate change.
In the northern hemisphere, the belts of some plants may shift to the north, but because the green zones are not contiguous, this can mean virtually complete drying up of the various forests.
Rising ocean levels could endanger islands and coastal cities; the 20-centimetre rise in water levels can reach one meter by the end of the century at an ever-accelerating rate.

According to experts, it is vital to manage our water resources and prepare agriculture for water-scarce and hot periods, while also being able to reduce our energy needs on an individual level and be more environmentally conscious.

Our civilisation must prepare for the changes that are expected or have already taken place. In order to provide livable and healthy living conditions for ourselves and future generations, it is inevitable that humanity will switch from fossil fuels to renewables and reduce its energy consumption as soon as possible.

Read alsoMinister identifies pillars of Hungary’s climate action plan

August 25, 2020

Massive storm hit Hungary on Sunday: One death, fallen trees, flooded underpasses – PHOTOS

Sunday storms and heavy rains caused severe problems in Budapest and the whole area of Hungary, especially Lake Balaton. Firefighters were called to arrive at approximately 350 locations in one day to help residents.

Read alsoStorm Ciara disrupts train services in Hungary

HVG reported that Hungarian firefighters had to take care of the whole country on Sunday, June 14. Besides Budapest and Lake Balaton, the most alarms arrived from towns and villages of Fejér, Jász-Nagykun-Szolnok and Komárom-Esztergom countries. At the area of Lake Balaton authorities mostly needed to clear roads and streets from fallen trees and there were houses which almost burned down because of heavy lightning.

storm in hungary — *Photo: MTI/Soós Lajos*

Social media was flooded with videos and pictures about a well-known shopping mall in Budapest called Árkád Centre, which was flooded by heavy rain; the water entered the building through the corridors and shops – reported another article on HVG.

Besides Árkád, crowded underpasses like at Móricz Zsigmond Körtér and Keleti Pályaudvar were also spots of floods on Sunday afternoon. In the city centre, not just rain but smaller and bigger pieces of ice fell from the sky. Mayor of Budapest, Gergely Karácsony warned Budapest residents to beware of the storm as the streets are slippery and underpasses are covered with water – reported Szeretlek Magyarország.

The Hungarian Meteorological Service asked Hungarian residents to follow weather reports in the following days carefully and to prepare for other heavy rains all across the country.

Unfortunately, the storm had one fatal incident: when a 66-year-old woman in Tótvázsony (Lake Balaton) left her house to clean some parts of the house’s bridge at the end of the garden, she suddenly fell, and massive floods took here 70 meters away from the small garden-bridge.

School attack in Slovakia leaves two deaths, five others injured

Hungarian authorities tried to save the woman, but unfortunately, the performed CPR could not save her.

Népszava reported that in many countries the heavy rains and the fallen trees caused massive traffic junctions at roads in Hajdú-Bihar and Jász-Nagykun-Szolnok counties. Until the firefighters cleaned the streets and the police arrived to help, drivers had to wait hours.

June 15, 2020

Bad climate news! – Budapest has the second largest temperature increase in Europe

After Riga, Budapest is ranked second among the European capitals where the average temperature has increased the most in the last 50 years. It means a 4°C increase in the Hungarian capital.

The European Union’s Copernicus program examined a total of more than 100,000 settlements in Europe. Large cities received particular attention, analysing data in 35 countries and their capitals.

This has shown that Budapest is ranked second on the list of capitals where the average temperature has increased the most significantly since the 1960s

– said András Lukács, chairman of the Air Working Group, at InfoStart.

The most substantial increase was measured in Riga, the capital of Latvia. According to the data, the average temperature in Budapest increased by 4°C. He also reported that the National Meteorological Service has similar data, but shows a smaller increase – about 2°C.

The reason for the big difference is not known; however, Hungary is among the European countries where the greatest dangers of climate change can be expected. This was also stated in the National Climate Change Program, which was adopted unanimously by the Parliament.

According to the expert, the biggest problem is the summer heatwaves.

The number of summer heat days has increased with only minor fluctuations over the last few decades, but it has steadily increased indeed. And on these hot days, the number of illnesses and deaths rises.

Record high temperatures in Budapest, across country

A study was conducted to examine the extent and number of heat days between 2000 and 2010. They found that the number of deaths increased by 30% compared to the same period in previous years when there was no heatwave.

It has been also revealed that the largest temperature increase was experienced inside and around big cities.

According to András Lukács, this can be explained by the fact that these areas are paved, with plenty of cars. “If we look at the temperature of the soil where there are trees, we can see that it does not heat up above 25°C on summer heat days. On the other hand, asphalt can heat up to 60°C, whereas the hood of a car can heat up to 70°C. They work like a stove, heating the environment; as a result of which, the temperature in cities is much higher than in the rural areas.”

According to the expert, this phenomenon also explains what would be the solution in order to reduce the high temperature – decreased number of paved surfaces, and the expansion of natural soils, trees and green areas.

Read alsoMinister identifies pillars of Hungary’s climate action plan

May 26, 2020

Weather forecast for Hungary – it gets worse, but we should be happy about it

Even though Monday was cloudy in the Western regions, we could still see rays of sunshine in most parts of the country. However, from Tuesday on, the weather gets a little darker, a little windier, and a whole lot wetter.

Femina summarised this week’s weather.

Even though it will be cloudy, rainy, and windy, we should be happy about it because this weather was very much needed for our fields.

Days of the week

On Tuesday morning, besides cumulus clouds, there is a prospect of sunshine. However, in the afternoon, clouds will increase from the Southwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are to be expected together with a strong Southwest wind. Stormy gusts of wind can occur in the vicinity of thunderstorms. The highest daytime temperature will range from 21˚ Celsius to 26˚ Celsius.

On Wednesday, in addition to the veil clouds, strong cumulus cloud formations are expected, and several places should prepare for showers and thunderstorms. The wind turns from Southwest to West and then to Northwest. Stormy gusts of wind are expected in the vicinity of thunderstorms. The lowest temperature will range between 8˚ Celsius and 14˚ Celsius, and the highest temperature will range between 18˚ Celsius and 25˚ Celsius. However, it may be colder in the North-western and Western parts of the country.

In addition to the cumulus cloud formations, more or less sunshine is also expected on Thursday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are still likely all over the country. The Southwest, West wind will be strong. The lowest night temperature will range between 7 ˚ Celsius and 13 ˚ Celsius, and the highest day temperature will range between 19 ˚ Celsius and 24 ˚ Celsius.

On Friday (May 1, which is a national holiday in Hungary), we can expect cloudy weather, and we will see the sun only for shorts periods. Showers and thunderstorms are expected in several places. The Northwest wind will be strong. The lowest temperature will range between 8 ˚ Celsius and 15 ˚ Celsius, and the highest temperature will range between 14 ˚ Celsius and 23 ˚ Celsius. The Eastern and South-eastern parts of the country will be the warmest.

Read alsoThis is what Hungarians celebrate on the 1st of May

April 28, 2020

5 killed as tornado hits U.S. states of Oklahoma, Texas

At least five people were killed and more than a dozen injured Wednesday as severe weather hit the U.S. states of Oklahoma and Texas, according to officials.

A tornado touched down in Marshall County, Oklahoma around 5 p.m. local time (2200 GMT), leaving two people dead and another person in critical condition at a hospital, local media reported, quoting Robert Chaney, the county’s emergency management director.

Several vehicles were thrown into trees and the tornado caused damage to two steel manufacturing companies, Chaney was quoted as saying.

The Oklahoma Department of Emergency Management said the tornado had damaged at least 12 homes, businesses and power lines in Marshall County.

In Polk County, Texas, at least three people were killed and 20 to 30 people injured after storms ripped through multiple neighborhoods in the area around dinnertime, according to the Polk County Office of Emergency Management.

“A tornado warning went into effect at approximately 5:45pm (2245 GMT). At 6:11, we began receiving reports of storm-related damage,” it said, adding that search and rescue is ongoing.

“The state has already deployed response teams and medical resources to help Texans in need and to provide assistance to these communities,” Texas Governor Greg Abbott said in a statement.

“Our hearts are with our fellow Texans tonight and the state will continue to do everything it can to support those affected by this severe weather,” he added.

Read alsoCyclone Ciara: terrifying videos about how planes landed and the Balaton flooded

April 23, 2020

Hungarian professors confirm that weather can affect the spread of viruses

“The spread of different viruses is affected by all elements of the weather, including sunshine, temperature, rain and humidity,” said Sándor Szegedi, the head of the Department of Meteorology at the University of Debrecen.

In his announcement, Sándor Szegedi explained to Hirado that since the purpose of viruses is to enter the human body and reproduce in it, they are only able to survive in roughly similar weather conditions as the one provided by its host. Therefore, viruses spread more effectively in a closed, weather-independent space, than in the open air, where they are exposed to numerous effects.

Mild weather has helped coronavirus to spread.

“According to scientists, temperatures between 0 and 20 degrees Celsius are the most optimal for viruses. The mild climate of Wuhan in Hubei Province, the assumed starting point of the current coronavirus pandemic, and the smog typical of Chinese metropolises created ideal conditions for the outbreak. Viruses can travel long distances by adhering to the floating aerosol particles in the smog, and when the coronavirus arrived in Europe, the mild but gloomy weather also favoured its spread,” Szegedi said.

Kiskunhalas Container Hospital Konténer Kórház

Read alsoHungarian mobile epidemic hospital is ready to take in COVID-19 patients

He added that temperatures well below freezing point and extremely high humidity (around 90%) could greatly reduce the spread of the virus.

Rain can help wash out viruses from the air, but wind acts as a double-edged sword since it can blow disease-causing particles up to tens of meters.

The head of the Department of Meteorology reported that direct sunlight can be considered the biggest enemy of the current COVID−19 pandemic because ultraviolet rays have bactericidal and antiviral effects.

“During the following weeks, because of the longer periods of sunshine and the high position of the sun, the efficiency of sunlight will further improve which may inhibit the coronavirus from settling down on sunlit surfaces,” added Szegedi.

As István Lázár, the employee of the Department of Meteorology pointed out, the current coronavirus pandemic also affects weather forecasting.

In addition to radiosondes and other weather balloons, commercial flights also help to collect data. They measure during take-off and landing, on the runway and at their cruising altitude. These measurements significantly influence the accuracy of forecasts, especially in changeable weather situations.

According to the data of EUMETNET (a network of European Meteorological Services), the 70% reduction in air traffic caused by the coronavirus pandemic has reduced the rate of incoming data from commercial aircraft (a plural is aircraft) to 40%. Lázár further added that based on the simulations of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the accuracy of weather reports without these aircraft measurements that forecast for the next 12 hours dropped by 10−15% in the Northern Hemisphere at altitudes between 7 and 16 kilometres. The setback was less significant in the Southern Hemisphere as air traffic was not as heavy there.

Hungary, invention, glasses, coronavirus

Read alsoCoronavirus – Invention by Hungarian university students could help healthcare workers – VIDEO

April 15, 2020

Weather forecast: winter says hello in March with snowfall in Hungary – Photos

There has been a significant drop in temperature accompanied by some snowfall in most parts of the country. It seems like winter was not ready to say goodbye after all. There is hope though; the temperature is going to rise again slowly, reaching a comfortable 19˚ Celsius by Sunday.

Days of the week

Monday greeted us with a sudden drop in temperature and an even more sudden snowfall at the end of March. It turns out we should not hope for much better weather on the other days of the week either.

Tuesday will be cloudy. There is a fat chance of snowfall again in the Southern part of the country. Strong wind is also expected throughout the country. The maximum temperature during the day is going to be between 0 and 8˚ Celsius. The minimum temperature is going to be between -6 and 0˚ Celsius but be prepared for the even colder temperature at some parts of the country.

snow Pécs weather — Pécs, Hungary. Photo: MTI

buzzard — Pomáz, Hungary.
Buzzard (Buteo buteo, photo: MTI

Precipitation is also expected on Wednesday, probably starting with some snow then it will turn into sleet and then just plain rain (especially East from the Danube). The maximum temperature during the day is going to be between 0 and 7˚ Celsius. The minimum temperature is going to be between -5 and 0 ˚ Celsius but be prepared for the even colder temperature at some parts of the country.

The Western part of the country can expect various forms of precipitation on Thursday. The wind will be particularly strong. The maximum temperature during the day is going to be between 4 and 16˚ Celsius. The minimum temperature is going to be between -3 and 2˚ Celsius but be prepared for the even colder temperature at some parts of the country.

The sun will come out again on Friday, especially in the Eastern parts of the country. Rain can only be expected in the Transdanubia region. The maximum temperature during the day is going to be between 9 and 18˚ Celsius. The minimum temperature is going to be between -1 and 5˚ Celsius but be prepared for the even colder temperature at some parts of the country.

The weekend still has some precipitation in store for us in the form of a downpour. The maximum temperature during the day is going to be between 11 and 19˚ Celsius. The minimum temperature is going to be between -1 and 6˚ Celsius but be prepared for the even colder temperature at some parts of the country.

Read alsoBear Leek Season: Let’s Spring into Spring!

Featured image: MTI/Mónus Márton

March 24, 2020

Cyclone Ciara: terrifying videos about how planes landed and the Balaton flooded

Storm Ciara reached Hungary, and it disrupted train services in many parts of the country, pulled out trees from the ground, it “tilted” Lake Balaton and caused severe headache to every pilot trying to land with their plane. We collected some terrifying videos below.

According to szeretlekmagyarorszag.hu, the storm caused 106 km/h gusts in the downtown of Sopron (Western-Hungary) while in Zalaegerszeg this strength was 106 km/h, in Pécs 90 km/h, in Dunaújváros 80 km/h and in Mezőberény 51 km/h. The effects of the cyclone are perceptible in many other countries, for example, a plane of the British Airways broke the subsonic record of the flight time between New York and London with only 4 hours and 56 minutes (5,554 km) which is 80 minutes less than the usual flight time.

The situation is terrible near Lake Balaton, as well. The wind is extreme there and massive waves are flooding the neighbourhood of the shores of the lake. Video below:

https://www.facebook.com/idokep/videos/806586443177845/

According to hvg.hu, on Sunday, in Birmingham, the pilots of the Hungarian low-cost airline, Wizz Air, struggled hard with the strong wind. It is not surprising that a lot of flights have been cancelled due to the storm even in Budapest. The most significant problems caused by the cyclone are in the United Kingdom, in Belgium and the Netherlands. Pilots have to tackle with 100-120 km/h gusts. Here is the video:

And this is how it felt from the inside:

February 12, 2020

Storm Ciara disrupts train services in Hungary

Storm Ciara has arrived in Hungary with violent gusts disrupting international train traffic, the national railway company MÁV said here on Monday.

The rail services affected by the storm are westbound: the Eurocity EC 172 and EC 173 services towards the Czech Republic, and Railjet’s EN 462 and EN 463 services towards Austria, MÁV said.

“Information on international lines is constantly updated on the official website and Facebook page of MÁV Hungarian Railways,” the statement said.

Delays have also been announced in the east of Hungary duo to the wind bringing down power lines over the tracks.

Meanwhile, the office of the mayor of Budapest reminded citizens that a second yellow warning had been issued to Budapest and central Hungary due to the gale-force winds, and asked people to stay at home if possible and be extremely careful.

“Stormy winds can exceed 60-75 kilometers per hour in most parts of the country, with a lower chance of 80-90 kilometers per hour along the rivers Danube and Tisza,” the mayor’s office said.

Several flights with Budapest stopover cancelled due to cyclone Ciara

Read alsoWind speed reaches record 124 kph in Budapest!

February 11, 2020

Several flights with Budapest stopover cancelled due to cyclone Ciara

Several fights with stopovers in Budapest were cancelled on Monday due to stormy weather around final destination airports in Europe, the communications director of the operator of Budapest Ferenc Liszt International Airport said.

Cancellations due to storm Ciara sweeping through western and central Europe have affected 11 flights due to conditions at their destination airports, Katalin Valentinyi of Budapest Airport said in a statement.

Budapest Airport notified

the passengers about possible disruptions in flight schedules and cancellation of their flights in the morning, she said, adding that they had been advised to contact their airline.

On Monday afternoon, wind speed around Liszt Ferenc airport was 32-35 knots, Valentinyi said, adding that this is expected to reach 47 knots, or around 90kph, in the late afternoon.

Apart from the stopover flights, all other services at the airport were operating normally, she said.

https://www.facebook.com/budapestairport/videos/486380391984301/

Weather forecast for Tuesday

Overcast at first with sporadic showers, turning sunny later in the day. Stormy winds in places.
Lows: -2, +6 C.

Highs: 7, 13 C.

Hurricane-force storm causes severe disruptions in Germany

Read alsoWind speed reaches record 124 kph in Budapest!

February 10, 2020

Hurricane-force storm causes severe disruptions in Germany

Hurricane-force winds and heavy rain swept over Germany and caused severe disruptions to road, rail and air traffic over the past two days.

Germany’s National Meteorological Service issued the second highest weather warning level for most parts of Germany on Sunday. Large sporting events were cancelled and many schools remained closed on Monday as a precautionary measure.

The cathedral in Frankfurt was damaged when the jib of a building crane buckled and crashed into the roof of the cathedral.

Railway company Deutsche Bahn (DB) announced on Sunday that long-distance trains were completely stopped for safety reasons “because of the heavy hurricane.”

According to DB, several hundred passengers made use of residence trains during the night. It is not clear when trains would run again. DB said that the inspection of the routes would take some time.

The General German Automobile Club told Xinhua on Monday that

several sections of federal and state roads as well as motorways were still closed because of fallen trees and blocked roads.

There were also delays and flight cancellations on German airports. At Cologne Bonn Airport, more than 80 take-offs and landings were cancelled on Sunday and Monday, a spokesperson of the airport told Xinhua.

At Munich Airport, the second largest airport in Germany, a total of 600 take-offs and landings were cancelled on Sunday and Monday, a spokesperson of the airport told Xinhua.

February 10, 2020

Wind speed reaches record 124 kph in Budapest!

Winds in Hungary hit record speeds on Tuesday, with 124kph measured on János Hill in Budapest, the Hungarian Meteorological Service said on its Facebook page.

Winds were above 100kph in Sopron, Balatonöszöd, Tes and the Kab hill, the weather service said.

The gale-force winds blowing across Hungary have brought down trees, broken tree branches and damaged power lines in numerous parts of the country, the national disaster management authority (OKF) said earlier in the day.

Storm uproots trees, damages power lines across Hungary

Gale-force winds blowing across Hungary have brought down trees, broken tree branches and damaged power lines in numerous parts of the country, the national disaster management authority (OKF) said on Tuesday.

Firefighters have responded to more than 100 calls for help concerning damage caused by the storm, such as uprooted trees and fallen branches,

OKF said, adding that no injuries have been reported. Traffic lights were also brought down or damaged in several places, it said.

Most storm-related incidents were recorded in the northern Transdanubian region and Budapest.

Here is the 2050 Climate Change City Index: Budapest is in risky position

The Budapest mayor’s office has issued a second-degree alert for the capital and Pest County, forecasting storm-force winds for Tuesday.

Budapest Mayor Gergely Karácsony has ordered the Budapest Law Enforcement Directorate to be in constant contact with the OKF, the statement said.

As we wrote three days ago, temperatures in Hungary reached a record high for February 2, hitting 18.2 C. in the village of Drávaszabolcs on Sunday.

Weather forecast for Wednesday

Cloudy at first with rainy spells, turning brighter later on. Stormy winds.

The weather service has issued second-degree alerts due to strong winds for Wednesday across the country, with the exception of the northern counties of Heves and Nográd.

Lows: 0, 4 C.

Highs: 2, 8 C.

February 5, 2020

Here is the 2050 Climate Change City Index: Budapest is in risky position

Data shows how temperature changes, water shortages and rising sea levels may impact some of the world’s most popular cities in the next three decades.

● Bangkok, Thailand may experience the greatest climate change by 2050, with the highest risk of flooding from rising sea-levels and a temperature increase of 1.67°C.
● Nairobi, Kenya may experience the biggest overall climate shift by 2050, moving from a Temperate Humid Warm Summer climate to a Tropical Savanna Wet Summer climate type, and a 2.31°C temperature increase.
● Melbourne, Australia may experience the greatest water stress increase, where demand will be double the supply by 2040.
● Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, and Amsterdam, Netherlands are the 2nd and 3rd cities respectively potentially set to experience the greatest climate shift by 2050.

Berlin, Germany, January, 2020 — A study revealing how the climate will shift by 2050 in major cities around the globe has been released by apartment rentals platform, Nestpick.com. Climate change is at the forefront of many people’s minds, but most especially Millennials, Gen-Zs and the forthcoming younger generations. Shifting weather patterns will have the largest impact on the upcoming demographics’ lives, and will likely be a deciding factor for where they ultimately choose to settle.

To understand how some of the most popular cities in the world will be affected by climate change, the apartment platform set out to determine how potential temperature shifts, water shortages and rising sea-levels could impact our planet in the next twenty to thirty years. Nestpick hopes that this study will not only help those looking to relocate to make informed decisions about how climate change may impact their chosen city, but also add to the growing debate about how the correct legislation and safeguarding procedures can be put in place to ensure the longevity and liveability of these cities.

How the study was conducted

Before beginning the study, it was important for Nestpick to acknowledge the difficulty of climate change prediction, and the added challenge of presenting climate data in a way that is easily understandable. To undertake this challenge, several existing research methodologies from established climate change experts and reports were consulted to build the framework for the research. These include Jean-Francois Bastin, an Ecologist at the University of Ghent, the Koppen-Geiger climate classification system, the World Resources Institute data on water shortages, and more. A list of 85 cities which featured in top tourist destinations lists for Gen Z and Millennials, and which were also covered in these existing studies, was then finalised. Looking at climate categorisation, average temperature, sea-level changes and water stress, the cities which are predicted to experience the highest and lowest climate change shift between now and 2050 were determined.

Please note that this study does not take into account current spending on countermeasures or how this may impact predicted climate shifts.

Key Findings

The key findings below all reveal scores out of 100, where the higher the score, the greater the potential climate shift impact between now and 2050.

The table below shows the top 10 cities with the highest Total Score, indicating the greatest predicted overall climate change by 2050:

1. Bangkok, Thailand
2. Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
3. Amsterdam, Netherlands
4. Shenzhen, China
5. Melbourne, Australia
6. Cardiff, UK
7. Seoul, South Korea
8. Boston, USA
9. Nairobi, Kenya
10. Marrakesh, Morocco
…
36. Budapest, Hungary

The table below shows the top 10 cities with the largest Climate Shift Score, indicating the greatest shift in temperature and climate type by 2050:

1. Nairobi, Kenya
2. Seoul, South Korea
3. Chicago, USA
4. Toronto, Canada
5. Beijing, China
6. Boston, USA
7. Kiev, Ukraine
8. Shenzhen, China
9. Helsinki, Finland
10. St. Petersburg, Russia
…
18. Budapest, Hungary

The table below shows the top 10 cities with the greatest Water Stress Increase Score, indicating those cities where the demand vs. supply ratio for water has the largest predicted increase between now
and 2040:

Melbourne, Australia
Santiago, Chile
Istanbul, Turkey
Marrakesh, Morocco
Sydney, Australia
Jerusalem, Israel
Cape Town, South Africa
Denver, USA
Dubai, UAE
Singapore, Singapore
…
29. Budapest, Hungary

The table below shows the top 10 cities with the greatest Potential Sea-Level Rise Impact Score, indicating those cities most at risk of flooding in 2050:

1. Bangkok, Thailand
2. Amsterdam, Netherlands
3. Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
4. Cardiff, UK
5. New Orleans, USA
6. Manila, Philippines
7. London, UK
8. Shenzhen, China
9. Hamburg, Germany
10. Dubai, UAE
…
55. Budapest, Hungary

Further Findings

● Of the high-income countries included in the index, Amsterdam, Netherlands, Melbourne, Australia and Cardiff, UK face the greatest potential climate change impacts by 2050.
● Of the upper-middle income countries included in the index, Bangkok, Thailand, Shenzhen, China and Istanbul, Turkey face the greatest potential climate change impacts by 2050.
● Of the lower-middle income countries included in the index, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, Nairobi, Kenya and Marrakesh, Morocco face the greatest potential climate change impacts by 2050.

● Ljubljana, Slovenia has the greatest potential temperature shift by 2050 of 3.53°C, followed by US Cities Cincinnati (3.38°C) and Baltimore (3.35°C).

● Rio de Janeiro has the smallest potential temperature shift by 2050 of 0.95°C, followed by Belfast, UK (1.10°C) and Cape Town, South Africa (1.11°C).
● Singapore, Singapore, Sydney, Australia and Phnom Penh, Cambodia have the lowest Climate Shift Scores in the index, indicating that their climates may not alter drastically in the next thirty years, as compared to other cities included in the study.
● Doha, Qatar may have the worst water stress by 2040, with a predicted demand vs. supply of 51.21, followed by Barcelona, Spain (35.98) and Denver, USA (18.28).
● 72 cities in the index have a Water Stress Increase Score of 1.00, indicating that it is likely that there will only be a minimal difference in their water demand vs. supply between now and 2040.
● Marseille, France, Orlando, USA and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil have the lowest total climate change scores, indicating that these cities may experience the least dramatic shift in climate between now and 2050 overall, as compared to other cities included in the index.

Quotes

“These results are eye-opening to our team at Nestpick, as a number of the cities which will undergo the most drastic changes in climate over the next three decades such as Bangkok and Amsterdam are some of the most popular destinations with expats and contractors looking for opportunities abroad.

Millennials, Gen Z-ers and those even younger will increasingly need to keep climate change in mind when searching for the city they would like to eventually settle in,” comments Ömer Kücükdere, Founder and CEO at Nestpick. “Governments need to be aware of potential changes coming so that they can mitigate damage.

Please find the complete methodology and full data set on the results page

January 29, 2020

How Changes In Seasons Impact Your Mood

The leaves on the trees are not the only things that change during the autumn. Your moods could, too. Science has discovered that a feeling of blueness or sadness is a real effect of the changing of the seasons, especially during the transition of autumn into winter. Seasonal mood shifts change different people in different ways, but some common effects include having less energy, feeling less interested in socializing or engaging in favorite activities, wanting to eat more carbohydrates or comfort foods and experiencing changes in sleep patterns. Understanding how changes in seasons impact your mood allows you to take action and seek help if you need it.

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The Biggest Seasonal Variable on Your Mood

While a lot of people complain about the cold air during the transition of spring into summer or autumn into winter, science shows that it’s something else affecting your mood.

The biggest seasonal variable on your mood is daylight.

The length of the day has the biggest impact on how you feel.

Day Length Impacts Hormones

The longest day of the year is the summer solstice. As summer turns into autumn, the sunrise is later. The sun sets earlier each day until the autumn equinox. This pattern continues until the winter solstice, which is the shortest period of daylight. The duration of daylight impacts your hormones.

It has a considerable role in regulating your serotonin.

This hormone is one of many that are responsible for your mood and sense of well-being.

Daylight and Its Effects on Sleep

Serotonin levels also impact melatonin. This is a hormone that makes you feel sleepy, and your body naturally produces it close to bedtime. However, the length of daylight has a big impact on your body’s natural rhythm. This is called your circadian rhythm. It is set by your exposure to daylight. The shorter daylight in the late autumn and winter disrupts your circadian rhythm.

Your body may release melatonin earlier in the day.

This results in you either feeling very sleepy for much of the day or being unable to sleep at night. When you don’t sleep well, your mood suffers. Poor sleep and insufficient sleep are directly related to your mood, energy level and sense of well-being. Your serotonin levels can also drop, causing you to feel less happy.

How to Combat a Sad Mood

As the calendar turns to autumn and then winter, you can be proactive in fending off a sad mood. Open the blinds or curtains so the sunlight can enter your living space. Go outside for a walk in the morning.

The sunlight and exercise work together to boost your serotonin level and improve your mood. Choose healthy foods.

Although the pumpkin pie and holiday fudge taste and smell delicious, the blood sugar drop a short time after eating them will deplete your mood. Instead, choose lean proteins, whole grains and plenty of seasonal fresh or frozen fruits and vegetables. Focus on water for hydration, and avoid alcohol or excessive caffeine intake.

Mild Mood Changes Versus Depression

Sometimes, a sad mood is more than just a mood. It can turn into depression. Seasonal affective disorder, or SAD, is a type of depression. Some people are more likely to experience it in the late autumn and winter months. Call your doctor if your sadness persists for more than two weeks.

January 27, 2020

WMO confirms 2019 as 2nd hottest year on record

The year 2019 was the second warmest year on record after 2016, just as the past five years are the top five warmest and the past ten years also the top ten, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Wednesday, expecting much extreme weather throughout 2020 and the coming decades.

The latest WMO data show that average temperatures for the five-year (2015-2019) and ten-year (2010-2019) periods were the highest on record. Since the 1980s, each decade has been warmer than the previous one, and the trend is expected to continue because of record levels of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Read also2019 hottest year in Hungary since 1901, says weather service!

The year 2016 remains the warmest year on record, because of the combination of a very strong El Nino event, which has a warming impact, and long-term climate change.

“The average global temperature has risen by about 1.1 degrees Celsius since the pre-industrial era and ocean heat content is at a record level,” said WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas. “On the current path of carbon dioxide emissions, we are heading towards a temperature increase of three to five degrees Celsius by the end of century.”

The rising temperatures have been associated with retreating ice, record sea levels, increasing ocean heat and acidification, and extreme weather during the past year and decade.

“The year 2020 has started out where 2019 left off — with high-impact weather and climate-related events,” Taalas said, citing 2019 as the hottest, driest year on record in Australia, which has set the scene for the current massive bushfires there.

“Unfortunately, we expect to see much extreme weather throughout 2020 and the coming decades, fueled by record levels of heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,” Taalas warned.

January 15, 2020

Over 1,000 flights canceled in Chicago amid winter storm

More than 1,000 flights were canceled Saturday morning as a winter storm hit the Chicago area with heavy winds and rain.

O’Hare International Airport cancelled over 950 flights, while the Midway International Airport canceled about 60, local media reported.

A Winter Weather Advisory was issued for northern Illinois and the Chicago area early Saturday morning, and would be in effect until 3 p.m. Sunday.

Freezing rain started to hit the Chicago area overnight into Saturday morning, and is expected to transition to snow late Saturday afternoon and evening.

A Flood Watch is also in effect until Saturday evening for some counties.

The Chicago Department of Emergency Management said it is prepared for this winter weather, with 1,800 trucks and other equipment statewide on standby to treat roads or respond to flooding situations.

January 11, 2020

2019 hottest year in Hungary since 1901, says weather service!

Last year was the hottest year in Hungary since 1901, the weather service said on Wednesday.

Of the ten hottest years, eight have been recorded since 2000 in Hungary,

where warming has been slightly above the global average, rising by 1.2 degrees since the beginning of the 20th century, the statement said.

The national daily mean temperature averaged 12.9 degrees Celsius last year, 1.87 degrees above the average mean between 1981 and 2010.

The summer of 2019 was the second hottest since 1901, with June 3.6 degrees hotter than the average of previous years and daily records broken both on June 15 and 16. The hottest day of 2019 was August 12, with 38 degrees recorded in Derékegyhaz, in southern Hungary.

Record temperatures were witnessed last autumn, with September 1 degree hotter than the average of previous years, October 2 degrees hotter and November 4 degrees hotter.

The weather office said the climate conditions of Hungary fitted the global trend of warming last year, also characterised by extremities in terms of rainfall.

January 8, 2020