Publicus polling shows Péter Magyar’s lead over Viktor Orbán on suitability for the premiership narrowing, although the Tisza leader remains significantly ahead
Support for Hungary’s ruling Fidesz party increased slightly in August while backing for the Tisza Party fell, according to a new poll by the Publicus Institute commissioned by daily Népszava.
The survey also found that fewer Hungarians now consider Péter Magyar suitable to serve as prime minister, while Viktor Orbán’s rating on the same question improved. Despite the shift, Magyar remains considerably more popular than Orbán among the overall population.
The poll was conducted between 18 and 25 August, with 1,006 people interviewed by telephone. Data collection was completed before the controversy surrounding the appointment of the head of Hungary’s Asset Recovery Office.
Tisza still holds a commanding lead among decided voters
Among voters who have decided which party they would support, 65 per cent backed Tisza, while 24 per cent supported Fidesz. Tisza’s support fell by three percentage points compared with July, while Fidesz gained one point. Despite the movement, the opposition party still holds a substantial 41-percentage-point lead among certain party voters.
The smaller parties remained well behind the two main contenders. Mi Hazánk and the Hungarian Two-Tailed Dog Party each stood at around 1 per cent among decided voters.
Looking at the entire sample, Tisza was supported by 48 per cent of respondents, compared with 19 per cent for Fidesz. Mi Hazánk received 5 per cent, while the Democratic Coalition and Two-Tailed Dog Party each registered 1 per cent. Meanwhile, 26 per cent of respondents were uncertain about which party they would support, three percentage points more than a month earlier.
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Hungarians slightly less satisfied with the direction of the country
The poll also detected a modest deterioration in public satisfaction with the way things are going in Hungary. In late August, 61 per cent of respondents said they were rather satisfied with the country’s direction, down two percentage points from July. The proportion who were dissatisfied increased by four points.
There was a sharp partisan divide in the responses. Around 91 per cent of Tisza voters said they were satisfied, compared with just 9 per cent of Fidesz supporters. Among undecided voters, 49 per cent were satisfied with the direction of the country, while 42 per cent were dissatisfied.
Magyar remains ahead of Orbán, but the gap is narrowing
The survey also asked respondents whether they considered Péter Magyar and Viktor Orbán suitable to serve as Hungary’s prime minister.
Magyar was considered rather suitable by 57 per cent, while 34 per cent considered him rather unsuitable. His rating has nevertheless deteriorated significantly: in July, the figures stood at 62 per cent to 30 per cent, while an earlier Publicus poll recorded a 72–21 split.
Orbán, meanwhile, saw his rating improve. Thirty-three per cent of respondents considered the former prime minister rather suitable to lead the country, while 61 per cent considered him unsuitable. In July, the figures were 29 per cent and 65 per cent respectively.
This means Magyar’s advantage over Orbán on the suitability question has narrowed from 33 percentage points in July to 24 points in August.
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Sharp divide between the two political camps
The partisan divide remains particularly pronounced. Among Tisza supporters, 97 per cent considered Magyar suitable for the post of prime minister, while only 3 per cent of Fidesz voters agreed. Conversely, 93 per cent of Fidesz voters considered Orbán suitable to lead the country, compared with just 4 per cent among Tisza supporters.
Among undecided voters, Orbán had a slight advantage: 41 per cent considered him suitable for the premiership, compared with 33 per cent for Magyar.
The Publicus survey was conducted for Népszava between 18 and 25 August among a representative sample of 1,006 people by telephone. As the fieldwork ended before the appointment of the head of the Asset Recovery Office, the poll does not capture any potential impact of that subsequent political controversy.
