A new survey by the Publicus Institute suggests that a large majority of Hungarians believe former Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and his Fidesz party have little chance of returning to power following their crushing election defeat in April.
Two-thirds see no path back for Fidesz
According to the representative poll commissioned by Népszava and conducted between 5 and 14 May, 66% of respondents believe Fidesz has no realistic chance of recovering from its April election loss and returning to government. Only 27% think the former ruling party could eventually regain power.
The political divide is stark: around eight in ten remaining Fidesz supporters still believe the party can rebuild itself, while nearly 90% of supporters of the governing Tisza Party think the former governing force has no future comeback.
The survey also found that even undecided voters are largely pessimistic about Fidesz’s prospects.
Hungarians even more sceptical about Orbán’s return
Public opinion appears even harsher regarding Orbán personally. More than three-quarters of respondents, 76%, said they do not believe the former prime minister could successfully return to power. Within that group, 69% said they see absolutely no chance of a political comeback.
Fewer than two in ten respondents believe Orbán could rise again politically. However, among Fidesz voters, 65% still believe in his eventual return, while only 4% of Tisza supporters share that view.
The survey also examined reactions to Orbán’s decision not to take up a parliamentary seat after the election defeat. Overall, 44% agreed that he should step back from frontline politics, while another 14% said remaining outside parliament could help him reorganise Fidesz more effectively.
Among Fidesz voters, nearly half believe Orbán can best rebuild the party from the background. At the same time, roughly one in five party supporters disagreed with his decision to withdraw from parliament.
Szijjártó emerges as favourite successor among Fidesz supporters
When respondents were asked who could eventually replace Orbán as leader of Fidesz, 41% said they would not like to see anyone take over the role.
Among Fidesz supporters themselves, however, former Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó emerged as the clear favourite. More than half of governing party voters named him as the most suitable future leader of Fidesz.
Meanwhile, János Lázár and András Cser-Palkovics each received support from 7% of Fidesz voters, while 15% preferred the option of “someone else”.
Corruption seen as main reason behind defeat
The poll suggests that corruption was viewed by voters as the biggest factor behind Fidesz’s election loss. Six in ten respondents identified corruption as the former government’s most serious failure.
Healthcare ranked second among the perceived reasons for defeat, with roughly half of respondents saying the state of the healthcare system contributed significantly to the collapse in support for the former ruling party.
More than a quarter of respondents also pointed to problems in education and the economy, while others cited deteriorating relations with the European Union and concerns about the rule of law.
Interestingly, only 22% of Fidesz supporters blamed corruption, compared with 73% of Tisza voters and 49% of undecided respondents.
Majority believes Fidesz weakened democratic institutions
The research also found strong agreement with the claim that Fidesz drifted away from democratic norms during its 16 years in government and sought to entrench its power.
More than three-quarters of respondents agreed, or mostly agreed, with that statement. Even among Fidesz supporters, 21% shared that view, while support for the statement reached 97% among Tisza voters.
Despite concerns before the election that Fidesz might contest the result or refuse to hand over power smoothly, the party ultimately accepted defeat without alleging fraud or launching legal challenges.
Still, 63% of respondents said that peaceful power transfer does not disprove concerns that the previous governments spent years weakening rule-of-law safeguards.
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Hungarians expect a confrontational opposition
The survey also explored expectations regarding Fidesz’s future role in parliament.
A majority of respondents, 56%, believe the party will act as an obstructive opposition force and attempt to hinder the new government’s work at every opportunity. Only around one-third expect Fidesz to behave constructively and prioritise national interests.
However, more than three-quarters of Fidesz supporters believe the party will become a constructive opposition force.
Meanwhile, many respondents interpreted the growing public criticism coming from former Fidesz politicians and figures linked to the so-called “NER” elite as a sign of internal collapse rather than renewal. Six in ten respondents said the recent critical voices indicate disintegration inside the former ruling camp.
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