Prime Minister Péter Magyar said on Wednesday that Fidesz has fallen below 20% support for the first time in 30 years, sharing the findings of a new Závecz Research opinion poll on Facebook.
According to the survey cited by the prime minister, the Tisza Party commands 74% support among decided voters, while Fidesz stands at 19%.
“Fidesz has not been below 20% for 30 years, and now it even has a bankruptcy commissioner,” Magyar wrote, referring to the party’s current situation.
He added that the former ruling party was “accelerating down the same slope as the Gyurcsány era”, while his government continued to focus on governing.
“Meanwhile, the Tisza government is working every day for a functioning and humane Hungary. Today, we are deciding on VAT reductions,” the prime minister wrote, concluding: “Step by step. They are left with llamas and spitting.”
Poll suggests dramatic political shift
The latest Závecz Research findings, discussed by pollsters Endre Hann and Tibor Závecz on the programme Szinten túl, point to a major transformation in Hungary’s political landscape.
According to the survey, among decided voters, Tisza enjoys 74% support, compared with 19% for the Fidesz-KDNP alliance.
The research also suggests that Fidesz’s backing among the overall population has fallen from 27% to 16%, representing a decline from approximately 2.1 million supporters to around 1.2 million.
Tisza gaining ground across former Fidesz strongholds
The pollsters argued that Tisza has now overtaken Fidesz in several demographic groups that traditionally formed the conservative party’s core electorate.
According to Tibor Závecz, the opposition has built a significant lead even among lower-income and lower-status voters. The survey also indicates a marked shift among younger voters, with researchers saying Fidesz has struggled to reconnect with a generation it once sought to represent.
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Researchers cite several factors behind Fidesz’s decline
The analysts suggested that one reason for the decline is the collapse of Fidesz’s long-standing image as an unbeatable political force.
They also pointed to the departure or reduced public role of several prominent Fidesz politicians, as well as the impact of corruption allegations and controversies surrounding the use of public funds.
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According to the researchers, Fidesz has yet to demonstrate meaningful self-reflection following its election defeat and continues to rely on political messages they believe are no longer resonating with voters.
While they noted that Tisza’s rapid growth could eventually reach a natural limit, they argued that Fidesz’s difficulties show no sign of easing. Endre Hann even suggested that it could not be ruled out that Fidesz, in its current form, may not survive the present political crisis in the long term.
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In Canada we had a Progressive Conservative national government that collapsed in an election due to intense scandal. They got two seats. There was a car advertisement by Toyota that said “Toyota beats the Conservatives. They have two seats we give you four!” The end result was that the nation’s Progressive Conservative party disbanded and two right wing parties replaced the poltical room they vacated. They split the right-wing vote for many years and allowed the Liberal government to win election after election. Fidesz will likely disintegrate and there may be a number of inconsequential opposition parties in the next election with Tisza being the overwhelmingly dominant majority party the same way Fidesz was before