Hungary’s newly elected President András Baka has already achieved a level of public support that his predecessor, Tamás Sulyok, never managed to reach, according to a new poll commissioned by Telex.

The survey, commissioned by Telex and conducted by the 21 Research Centre on 11 and 12 August – the day Baka was elected and the following day – examined how well Hungarians knew the new president and whether they considered him suitable for the position.

The findings suggest that although Baka was largely unknown to the public before his nomination, he quickly won substantial support, particularly among voters of the governing Tisza Party.

Most Hungarians have heard of Baka

Some 84% of respondents had heard about Baka’s nomination as president. However, only 57% felt sufficiently familiar with him to say whether they considered him suitable for the role. Among those who expressed an opinion, 72% said Baka was suitable for the presidency, while 28% disagreed.

Across the entire sample, 41% considered him suitable for the post, compared with 16% who said he was unsuitable. The remaining respondents either did not know enough about him or declined to answer.

Baka’s initial level of recognition is difficult to compare directly with previous presidents because of the unusual circumstances surrounding his nomination. His name only became widely known after Prime Minister Péter Magyar posted a photograph of himself with Baka and Tisza politician Ruff Bálint on 5 August.

Before that, relatively few voters were likely to have remembered Baka as the former head of Hungary’s Supreme Court, a position from which he was removed in 2011.

New Hungarian President András Baka
András Baka. Photo: MTI

Baka starts with stronger ratings than Sulyok

Despite his relatively low public profile, Baka appears to be starting his presidency from a considerably stronger position than Sulyok ever enjoyed.

The 21 Research Centre’s earlier research found that Sulyok’s popularity remained relatively low throughout his presidency. By contrast, Baka has already attracted a significantly higher level of support just days after becoming president.

That does not necessarily put him among Hungary’s most popular political figures, however. Former presidents János Áder and Katalin Novák both reached much higher levels of popularity at their peaks. Still, Baka has already surpassed Sulyok’s highest recorded level of popularity, according to the polling data.

Tisza voters overwhelmingly back the new president

Baka’s support is strongly connected to current party preferences. Among Tisza voters, 69% consider him suitable for the presidency, while just 1% believe he is unsuitable. By comparison, only 8% of Fidesz voters consider Baka suitable, while 47% consider him unsuitable.

Among voters of other parties and those without a party preference, 20% consider him suitable and 17% unsuitable. A much larger 63% in this group either do not know enough about him or did not express an opinion.

The figures suggest that Baka has managed to attract some sympathy outside the Tisza camp, despite being nominated by the party at a particularly politically polarised moment.

At the same time, the researchers caution that Tisza voters were much more likely to have heard about Baka’s nomination and therefore much more likely to form an opinion about him. A large proportion of those who remain uninformed are Fidesz, Mi Hazánk or unaffiliated voters, meaning winning over these groups could prove considerably more difficult.

Is Baka independent or close to Tisza?

The poll also asked respondents how they viewed Baka politically. Some 37% considered him independent, while 15% believed he was close to Tisza. Another 47% could not decide, while just 1% considered him a Fidesz politician.

There is a clear link between perceptions of Baka’s independence and his perceived suitability for the presidency. Among those who consider Baka suitable, 88% see him as independent, while only 7% regard him as a Tisza-aligned figure.

Among those who consider him unsuitable, the picture is almost reversed: 76% believe he is close to Tisza, while just 9% consider him independent.

Baka also tops the list of preferred presidential candidates

Respondents were also asked to name, without being given a list, the person they considered most suitable for the presidency. The question produced highly fragmented results, with 62% unable to name anyone. Among those who did provide a name, however, Baka came out on top, with 14% mentioning him. Sulyok was named by just 5%.

Other names receiving one or two percent of mentions included chess grandmaster Judit Polgár, Péter Márki-Zay, Ákos Hadházy, Viktor Orbán, Mi Hazánk’s presidential nominee Máté Tóth, Katalin Novák, historian Ignác Romsics, former justice minister Péter Bárándy, Ágnes Forsthoffer and András Schiffer.

Fidesz voters were more likely to mention Sulyok, Orbán, Schiffer and former justice minister Judit Varga, although they were generally less likely to name anyone than Tisza voters.

The fact that Sulyok received just 5% of spontaneous mentions is also notable. According to the analysis, this suggests that even among Fidesz voters, relatively few appear to have a strong personal attachment to the outgoing president. Much of their opposition to his removal may therefore be connected to the procedure itself rather than support for Sulyok personally.