Hungary’s population could fall below 9 million by 2043 and shrink to just 7 million by the end of the century, according to demographic projections. However, experts warn that spending more money on families will not be enough to reverse the trend, as an ageing population poses growing challenges for the country’s economy, healthcare and pension systems.
Hungary has been experiencing population decline for decades, and the situation is unlikely to change any time soon. In an interview with Telex, Tamás Boros, head of the Equilibrium Institute, and research director Gábor Filippov discussed what the country’s demographic future could look like and how society should prepare.
Hungary’s fertility rate fell below the replacement level of two children per woman in 1961. The population itself began shrinking in 1980, dropping below 10 million in 2011. By 2025, it had fallen to approximately 9.5 million. Current projections suggest Hungary could have fewer than 9 million residents by 2043 and only around 7 million by 2100.
However, the experts warned against interpreting these figures as the end of the Hungarian nation. They pointed out that smaller countries can still have considerable international influence, citing New Zealand as an example.
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Why are fewer children being born?
Several major social changes have contributed to declining birth rates. Improved healthcare and lower infant mortality, the expansion of social security, and women’s increasing participation in education and the labour market have all changed family planning. Many women now have their first child later, while some planned births never happen.
Hungary’s generous family support measures helped increase the fertility rate between 2011 and 2021. However, it subsequently fell again, reaching approximately 1.2–1.3 in recent years. According to Boros, it is difficult to establish how much of the earlier improvement resulted from government support and how much came from favourable economic conditions.
Filippov stressed that financial incentives alone cannot make people have children. Economic security, predictable living conditions and a peaceful environment are crucial. The experts also pointed to France, where extensive childcare services and support for mothers returning to work have helped maintain one of the EU’s higher fertility rates. Israel is currently the only developed country with a fertility rate above the replacement level.
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Fewer workers, more pensioners
The demographic shift is already affecting education. Hungary has almost one million fewer people under the age of 18 than in 1990, and they now account for just 16% of the population. Schools were designed for a considerably larger generation, raising difficult questions about closures and the role educational institutions play in keeping communities together.
Meanwhile, people aged over 65 already represent more than 20% of the population. Today, approximately four working-age people finance the pension of one retiree. This ratio could fall to three in the coming decades, putting additional pressure on the pension and healthcare systems.
The experts argued that Hungary should focus on improving public health, preventing avoidable deaths and encouraging Hungarians living abroad to return. A functioning public health system could potentially prevent at least 8,000 deaths annually.
Technology, not longer working hours, is the answer
According to Boros, younger generations should not simply be expected to work longer hours to support a growing elderly population. Instead, Hungary needs higher productivity through automation, robotics and artificial intelligence.
Japan offers an example of how an ageing society can encourage technological innovation. The pension system will also need reform to prevent older people from falling into poverty.
The experts’ most important message is that demographic decline cannot be reversed simply by spending more money on childbirth incentives. Hungary needs a stable economy, predictable living conditions, better public services and a long-term strategy for an ageing society.
People are not having kids due to radical feminism and consumerism, period.
So long as people (women AND men) continue worshiping career, material possessions, and life of cheap thrills, forming long-lasting relationships and creating a family will be the last thing on their minds or list of their wants.
Hungary and World in general is completely overpopulated already. Nobody (NEITHER women NOR men) need to feel bad about staying child-free and focusing on other aspects of life than raising their own family – be it career or art or traveling or taking care of other people or anything else (legal activity) that brings meaning and happiness to one´s life.
Demographic decline does not need to be reversed. Society needs to adapt accordingly with decreasing population instead of insisting blame and guilt on any groups or individuals.