Election 2014

Election 2014 – New government faces growth challenges

(MTI) – Hungary’s re-elected Fidesz government faces structural and growth challenges and will need to patch up its frayed relations with business and banks to boost the economy, London-based emerging markets economists said on Monday.

Timothy Ash of Standard Bank said opinion polls had been showing a Fidesz victory for months, so any short-term market reactions would be minimal.

“Perhaps more important will be any hints as to likely new policy impulses, and with a re-election under [Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s] belt whether he looks to make peace with foreign big business”.

Orban will need to do that “if much needed investment is to step up a gear and [if he wants to] take real GDP growth to the next level”, Ash said. “Big business do not want the frequent changes of policy, particularly in terms of taxes, which were characteristic of Orban’s last term”, he said.

William Jackson, a senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, a major London-based financial consultancy, said that in the very near term, Orban’s new premiership is likely to come along with a strengthening economic recovery.

“But the bigger picture is that there are unlikely to be any reforms to address the structural problems that emerged during Orban’s previous term … As such, over a medium-term horizon, we think the Hungarian economy is likely to remain a regional laggard”, Jackson added.

London-based economists at JP Morgan said a key challenge for the new Fidesz government would be to boost Hungary’s investment rate and narrow the real GDP gap versus its regional peers. On both counts Hungary has trailed neighbouring countries in recent years. The level of Hungary’s real GDP is just 2 percent higher than at the start of 2010, versus gains of 8-10 percent in Poland and Romania over the same period, they added.

“We believe that banks will again be expected to shoulder a good deal of the losses from any program that seeks to completely eliminate household exchange risks and ultimately phase out FX loans … However, a meaningful turnaround in the government’s attitude towards the banking sector is unlikely until banks increase lending to the private sector, but banks, in turn, will be reluctant to lend fearing renewed FX loan losses”, JP Morgan’s economists said.

Photo: MTI

Election 2014 – Hungary electoral system “unfair”, say European greens

Brussels, April 7 (MTI) – Hungary’s electoral system should be “blamed” for the Fidesz party’s second landslide victory in Sunday’s election, the European Parliament’s Greens/EFA group has said.

In a statement today, Rebecca Harms, leader of the Green group, noted that Fidesz had garnered 44 percent of the vote, and could probably have two-thirds of the seats in the Hungarian parliament.

The county’s “unfair electoral system now cements Orban’s sinister national populism,” she said.

Harms insisted that limits on press freedom, the judiciary’s independence and the central bank, as well as a “biased appointment and nominations policy” in favour of ruling Fidesz, had all got the wheels turning for Fidesz’s big win.

The ratio of voters abstaining from the election, at 38 percent, is high and indicates people’s disappointment with the electoral system, she said.

Harms called growing support for radical nationalist Jobbik “shocking”, and insisted that “Orban’s actions have prepared the ground” for a party which “openly advocates anti-Semitic and anti-Roma policies in the tradition of the old Hungarian fascists”.

The EU should come to a new agreement with Hungary to “ensure fundamental EU values are respected inside the community.” She warned that “the current lack of mandatory common democratic standards means that the EU runs the risk of breaking up from within”.

“The EU is further endangered when right-wing populists and anti-Europeans are handled with velvet gloves by their corresponding European party groupings,” the statement said.

Harms, however, welcomed that Hungary’s LMP party had cleared the parliamentary threshold of 5 percent, saying it was a “small, but in Central Europe, unique Green success”.

Photo: MTI

Election 2014 – Outstanding 2,000 votes to tip Budapest swing district

Budapest, April 7 (MTI) – The 2,000 votes which are yet to be counted in a voting district in Budapest’s south could decide whether or not ruling party Fidesz secures a two-thirds majority.

In the voting ward in the 18th district, Fidesz’s Laszlo Kucsak was ahead of Agnes Kunhalmi, the candidate of the leftist alliance, by only 22 votes with 98.68 percent of votes counted. This is the closest result in the whole country.

The outstanding votes were cast by people whose permanent residence is in this Budapest district but who either voted elsewhere in Hungary or abroad. These votes will be counted this Saturday.

A recount of the votes can only be demanded if there is a justifiable suspicion that the vote-counting committee broke the law and if there is a mathematical possibility that a recount would change the final outcome, the National Election Office said in a statement.

Photo: MTI

Election 2014 – Fidesz 2/3 depends on final outcome in swing wards, say analysts

Budapest, April 7 (MTI) – Political analysts polled by MTI after the ruling Fidesz party declared victory in Sunday’s general election said it was up to final results in certain districts whether the party would secure a supermajority.

Aron Hidvegi, analyst at Szazadveg, said Fidesz’s victory is noteworthy because it was able to secure unprecedented strong support from a governing position. The left’s strategy had clearly failed, not least because of the attempt to “integrate” DK leader and former prime minister Ferenc Gyurcsany, which prevented renewal on the left, he said. He added that radical nationalist Jobbik party had clearly gained ground from the weakness of the party alliance on the left. The small opposition LMP party’s result above the 5 percent entry threshold is a success, though the party had lost support compared to 2010, Hidvegi said.

Attila Juhasz, analyst at Political Capital, said if Fidesz were to win a two-thirds majority, it would happen while winning fewer votes than in all three previous elections (2010, 2006, 2002). He also noted that this would still depend on the final outcome in districts where the race was tight.

Juhasz said the left’s debacle can be attributed to a lack of steam in the party’s communications and the lack of credible and popular leaders. He added that Jobbik’s results were not a surprise, as the party was able to soak up votes from people disappointed in the government while keeping its camp on board.

One issue in the centre of the upcoming European parliamentary election will be whether Euroskepticism from far right parties would strengthen, Juhasz added.

Photo: MTI

Election 2014 – Orban declares resounding victory

Budapest, April 6 (MTI) – Prime Minister Viktor Orban declared a resounding victory for his Fidesz-led conservative alliance on Sunday after Hungary’s electorate returned Fidesz to power for another four years, its third term.

“With due humility and dignity, as becomes us, let us declare that all doubt and uncertainty have been dispelled: we have won!” said Orban.

According to the preliminary results based on a count of over 78 percent of the vote, the National Election Office said Fidesz won 45.11 percent of the vote, giving the incumbent party a large majority.

The left-of-centre Unity alliance secured 25.14 percent. Radical nationalist Jobbik surged with 21.07 percent, while green party LMP, with 5 percent of the vote, is bang on the threshold for seats in parliament.

The final turnout was 63.8 percent, slightly lower than 64.38 in the first round of the 2010 ballot.

The count of around 120,000 votes cast in missions abroad and by citizens who lodged their ballots in districts other than their home one will be completed next Saturday.

During the course of the election, monitors from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) said they were satisfied with the voting process. The OSCE mission will hold a news conference at 10am.

Photo: MTI

Election 2014 – Nezopont exit poll: Fidesz 48pc, Unity 27pc, Jobbik 18pc, LMP 6pc

Budapest, April 6 (MTI) – The ruling Fidesz-Christian Democrat alliance has notched up 48 percent of the vote in Hungary’s election, while the left-of-centre Unity alliance has 27 percent, according to an exit poll conducted by the Nezopont Institute today.

The radical nationalist Jobbik party received 18 percent, and green LMP 6 percent, Nezopont said.

No other parties have cleared the parliamentary threshold of 5 percent of all votes cast for national lists, the pollster said.

Nezopont asked by phone 1,200 voters about how they had cast their ballots.

Photo: MTI

Election 2014 – Jobbik alleges masses of Roma transported to polls

Budapest, April 6 (MTI) – Radical nationalist Jobbik alleged on Sunday that masses of Roma had been transported to polls in the cities of Gyongyos and Szolnok.

Jobbik spokesperson Dora Duro told a press conference in Budapest that in the northern Hungarian city of Gyongyos, in the constituency where Jobbik leader Gabor Vona is running, some 500 “Roma living in the slums” had been transported to polling places. Reports of similar activity in Szolnok in central Hungary were also received, she added.

Jobbik believes this constituted an organised action against Vona and calls on all supporters to go to the polls to prevent “paid votes” from deciding the elections, Duro said.

Photo: jobbik.hu

Election 2014 – Long waits for some registered to vote away from home districts

Budapest, April 6 (MTI) – The large number of voters who registered to vote outside of their home districts this election has caused long lines at some polling stations, election officials told MTI today.

The head of the National Election Office (NVI), Ilona Palffy, said lines were long in a number of Budapest’s districts, with waits in some places shorter than half an hour, but as long as one and a half hours in others. She said the largest number of voters registered to vote outside of their home districts — some 5,700 — was in the capital’s eleventh district.

Voters in Szeged, in southeast Hungary, registered outside of their home districts for the election had to wait more than one hour early in the afternoon before they got to the ballot box, MTI’s correspondent there said.

In Pecs, in the southwest, voters registered to participate in the election outside of their home districts, had to wait up to an hour, said local election office chief Andras Gondoc.

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Szeged and Pecs both have big universities that draw students from around the country.

Gergely Gulyas, an MP of governing Fidesz, responded to the reports of long waits for voters casting ballots outside of their home districts saying voting in these districts was accelerating with the involvement of more committees.

Photo: MTI

Election 2014 – Hungarians abroad cast votes at embassies, consulates

Budapest, April 6 (MTI) – Hungarians abroad cast their votes in the country’s general election at embassies and consulates today.

By two in the afternoon, more than half of Hungarians registered to vote in Romania had cast their ballots, diplomats there said.

In Cluj-Napoca (Kolozsvar), 230 of the 459 Hungarian expected to vote had cast their ballots, said consul-general Janos Magdo.

The diplomats said voters had also cast their ballots by letter, with more than 60,000 sent alone from Miercurea Ciuc (Csikszereda).

About one-fifth of the 128 Hungarian citizens registered to vote at the consulate-general in Bratislava had voted by two in the afternoon, said consul-general Zsolt Morovan.

In Ukraine, the participation rate at the consulate-general in Uzhhorod (Ungvar) was 73 percent and the rate at the consulate in Berehove (Beregszasz) was 65 percent. In Kiev, 55 of 63 Hungarians registered to vote had cast their ballots by early afternoon.

In Serbia, half of the 72 Hungarian voters had voted at the embassy in Belgrade by two in the afternoon. In Subotica (Szabadka), 240 of the 368 Hungarians registered to vote had cast their ballots.

In Berlin, more than 750 of 1,347 registered voters cast their ballots at the Hungarian embassy.

At the embassy in Bern, more than half of the 1,379 registered voters cast their ballots by early afternoon.

In London, more than half of the 5,371 voters registered at the Hungarian embassy had cast their vote by 2pm local time.

Photo: MTI

Election 2014 – Party leaders cast votes

Budapest, April 6 (MTI) – Leaders of Hungary’s parliamentary parties cast their votes in the general election on Sunday.

Opposition E-PM leader Gordon Bajnai cast his vote at a polling place in Buda a few minutes after the polls opened at 6 in the morning. He said there could be a change of government if the participation rate was high enough. He added that the election would determine whether Hungary drifts in the direction of Ukraine or starts down the rough road towards Austria.

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Prime Minister Viktor Orban visited his local polling station in the capital’s district twelve with his wife, Aniko Levai, casting his vote a few minutes before 8 in the morning. He told journalists afterward that he wished to see a high turnout. “I hope that a great many people will go [to vote], and that no matter what government is formed, it can start its work with a broad foundation of popular support,” Orban said.

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election2014-vote-vona-2Gabor Vona, the head of radical nationalist Jobbik, voted in Gyongyos in northern Hungary with his wife and young son a little after 8 in the morning. He told the press afterwards that he would not make a projection about the final results but he was certain that they would “cause a surprise.” Jobbik is planning to enter government, if this fails then the party will refuse to sign a coalition with either Fidesz or the Socialists and remain in opposition, he added.

Main opposition Socialist leader Attila Mesterhazy submitted his vote in Veszprem in western Hungary shortly before 11.30am but declined to speak to the press afterward.

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election2014-vote-schifferLMP leader Andras Schiffer submitted his vote at Fovam Square in Pest. He told the press afterwards that if his party gets strong support, there would be no two-thirds majority in parliament and Prime Minister “Viktor Orban’s despotic ambitions can be stopped.” Projections that there will be no change in government now seem to prove correct, he said, adding that what is at stake is whether voters turn towards Jobbik or to a non-violent and democratic alternative represented by LMP, he added.

election2014-vote-GyurcsányDK chairman Ferenc Gyurcsany cast his vote a little after 11:30 with his wife, Klara Dobrev, at a polling place in Budapest’s district two. He said he had bet a beer with DK politician Csaba Molnar that the participation rate would reach over 68 percent, adding that the high rate would favour those who want to see a change of government, while a low one would be good for the current government. Data available till now show an average participation rate, he noted. The former prime minister said his supporters would await the election results in the evening at the New Orleans Pub.

Photo: MTI

Election 2014 – Turnout at 1pm 34.33pc

Budapest, April 6 (MTI) – By 1pm on Sunday, 34.33 percent of the more than 8 million eligible voters had cast their ballots at 10,000 polling stations in Hungary’s parliamentary election.

The National Election Office reported that 2,753,211 people had gone to the polls in the first seven hours.

Turnout was the largest in Pest County (C Hungary), at 36.77 percent, and the lowest in Szabolcs-Szatmar-Bereg County (NE Hungary), at 30.11 percent.

Voter participation in Budapest stood at 39.01 percent at 1pm.

Photo: MTI

Election 2014 – Turnout at 11am 23.23pc

(MTI) – By 11am on Sunday, 23.23 percent of the more than 8 million eligible voters had cast their ballots at 10,000 polling stations in Hungary’s parliamentary election.

The National Election Office reported that 1,862,870 people had gone to the polls in the first five hours.

Turnout was the largest in Heves County (E Hungary), at 25.04 percent, and the lowest in Szabolcs-Szatmar-Bereg County (NE Hungary), at 19.52 percent.

Voter participation in Budapest stood at 23.61 percent at 11am.

Photo: MTI

TASZ queries data-protection authority on “unsolicited Fidesz messages”

(MTI) – The Hungarian Civil Liberties Union (TASZ) has asked the data protection authority what action it has taken in connection with unsolicited text and email messages by the ruling Fidesz party and allied organisations.

TASZ’s data protection programme leader told MTI on Saturday that the union had contacted the National Authority for Data Protection and Freedom of Information (NAIH) with a request to access data of public interest, after receiving information about unsolicited emails sent by Fidesz to people who said they had never given their contact details to the party.

Fanny Hidvegi said TASZ believed the authority was aware of the alleged violation of the law.

TASZ’s request centres on finding out how many complaints had been received by the authority about unsolicited messages by Fidesz, the government and the pro-government Civil Unity Forum (COF).

The liberties union said it also wants to know whether the NAIH had taken any related action.

It asked the authority to include in its reply any data available in relation to text messages inviting people to COF’s peace marches and Fidesz-supporting rallies.

Photo: www.iskolabazis.hu

Mesterhazy expects left-wing victory at election

Budapest, April 5 (MTI) – The prime minister candidate of the left-wing alliance, Attila Mesterhazy, said in an interview published in Saturday’s daily Nepszabadsag that he was certain his alliance for a “change in government” would win Sunday’s general election.

“The mood is for a change of government,” Mesterhazy, who leads the Socialist Party, said. “We will replace the government.”

Mesterhazy said he was certain there would be election cheating.

“Even now, we know of addresses from where more than a hundred people registered to vote in a short time. It is easy to see there are many out there who plan to cheat, or one could say abuse the peculiarities of the system. One thing should be made clear: the election can only be rigged from a position of power,” he said.

Mesterhazy added that a high turnout would be important, partly because it would make it harder to influence the final results in a fraudulent way.

He said he had a political contingency plan in case the government handover did not go smoothly. As prime minister, Mesterhazy said he would have several means at his disposal to handle such a situation, adding that these would not initially involve law enforcement.

Mesterhazy said he planned to become a prime minister for all Hungarians and would not exclude anyone. He added that he wanted to build a country in which even those who do not support him would find peace. He said he believed in politics that involves making gestures to each other and seeking dialogue. All important social issues need to be solved by seeking a consensus or at least reaching a compromise, he added.

There are issues where a political, social and political consensus is needed at the same time, such as reform of the pension system, Mesterhazy said.

He said he wanted a better structured government in which ministries would be dedicated to particular areas such as health and finance. Mesterhazy said he was planning to set up a coalition government, but its list of ministers is not yet final.

It would be worth starting a new process to amend the constitution, even if his prospective government failed to garner a two thirds majority.

The agreement with Russia on the expansion of the Paks nuclear power station must be renegotiated and a decision made in a “slower, more patient and wiser” manner, Mesterhazy said.

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Orban calls on supporters not to divide their votes

Budapest, April 5 (MTI) – Prime Minister Viktor Orban, in an interview published in Saturday’s daily Magyar Nemzet, urged all supporters of his ruling Fidesz party to go to the polls on Sunday.

In response to a question about what he considered the most important first steps to be taken if Fidesz wins the election, he said ongoing disputes between Hungary and the European Union concerning the land law and the cuts to public utility fees would intensify around May, and measures would also need to be taken in response to a top court decision expected on mortgage debt in foreign currency.

“Once the court makes its decision, we will immediately make a move and help out every single family…” Orban said.

A non-profit public utility services company will also be set up to oversee the supply of basic public utility services to Hungarians, he said.

He said the main left-wing opposition and radical nationalist Jobbik were Fidesz’s main political opponents, adding that the Socialists, if they got the chance to govern again, would repeat their past performance.

Focusing on power is engrained in the left’s way of thinking, he said. Voters gave the Socialists a chance in 2010 to reflect on their mistakes but they have failed to learn from them in the meantime, Orban added.

He condemned Jobbik for campaigning for Hungary’s exit from the European Union.

“The relationship between the EU and our country is not a love affair … This institution does not need to be loved … but we should not throw away our common sense, and we must not bash our heads against the wall, as Jobbik would like to,” he said.

“My political credo is focused on community building. I first built Fidesz’s radical, small-party community to change the regime, then a large civic party and a national community with a right-wing sensitivity through the civic circles, and we are in government, I am building a national community that also incorporates the left-wing, and, by way of a programme that develops the nation’s unity, reaches beyond the borders of the country,” Orban said.

Photo: MTI

Election 2014 – Fidesz slated to win, but every vote counts, says Orban

(MTI) – The ruling Fidesz party has a good chance of winning Sunday’s general election “but chance is not equal to victory”; every vote counts, Prime Minister Viktor Orban said at a rally in Szeged, south Hungary, on Friday.

Orban warned that one must learn from the election experiences in 2002, when “on Saturday we were winning, on Monday still, but the election was on Sunday.” He said the opposition has not given up.

The size of the victory is important, too, he said, adding that political clout to fight the opponents — the money men, the multinationals and the bureaucrats of Brussels — is only possible with support, with votes.

He said Hungary was at the threshold of opportunity and if the current government stays on for another four years it will be able to achieve an economic environment in which all have jobs, the scheme to cut utility bills is defended and continued and families are supported.

As the outcome of Sunday’s vote Hungary must again have a strong leadership because weak leaders only fight and fail to act, Orban insisted.

Photo: MTI

Election 2014 – Jobbik leader “debates” TV-Orban

(MTI) – The radical nationalist Jobbik party held a campaign-closing event on Friday evening, featuring a debate intended to resemble the one Prime Minister Viktor Orban had earlier rejected to attend.

Party leader Gabor Vona held the “debate” on a platform marked “Only the nation” next to another platform with a television set showing Orban and labelled “Only Fidesz”. Video footage from Orban’s speeches were shown throughout the evening.

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Vona promised to tackle problems such as a lack of jobs, people leaving the country, the “disappearance of national assets” and foreign currency credit crisis if elected to government.

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Election 2014 – Mesterhazy encourages supporters to change Hungary’s course

(MTI) – Voters supporting the left-of-centre Unity alliance in the April 6 general election will have a chance to change the course of Hungary and take the direction of the nation’s fate in their own hand, Socialist leader and Unity’s prime minister-candidate Attila Mesterhazy said on Friday.

The polling booth is “the only democratic place in today’s Hungary” where anyone may freely decide whether or not they want another four years of injustice and intimidation, Mesterhazy told a public forum in a Budapest suburb.

Those voting for the alliance will vote for living in a country with no fear, he said.

He said the political forces poised to replace the government would have a realistic chance to succeed.

Once in power, the Unity parties would restructure the reduced household utility prices in a way that the rich should enjoy nothing of them while the poor should benefit. A leftist government would lift the state monopolium on tobacco trade and review every farmland and public tender, he said.

Photo: MTI