Hungary’s governing Tisza Party has maintained its commanding lead over Fidesz despite several weeks of heated political debates, according to the latest opinion poll by the Republikon Institute. The survey suggests that recent domestic political controversies have had little impact on voter preferences.
Tisza’s support remains stable
According to the Republikon Institute’s July poll, Tisza continues to enjoy overwhelming support across all voter groups, while Fidesz has failed to regain momentum.
Among the entire population, Tisza remained unchanged at 58%, while Fidesz slipped by one percentage point to 20% compared with June.
The picture is similar among decided party supporters, where Tisza held steady at 68%, while Fidesz fell from 25% to 24%.
Among committed voters who are certain to cast their ballots, Tisza even edged up by one percentage point to 69%, whereas Fidesz declined to 23%.
Political disputes fail to shift public opinion
Republikon concluded that neither the recent amendment to Hungary’s Fundamental Law nor the debate surrounding the country’s next president had any measurable negative effect on support for Tisza.
Likewise, the institute found that Fidesz gained no political benefit from its recent campaign focusing on what it describes as the “end of the rule of law”, the replacement of its parliamentary group leader, or former prime minister Viktor Orbán’s speech at the annual Tusványos summer festival.
The polling organisation argued that, despite increased political activity within Fidesz in recent months, voters have shown little reaction. According to Republikon, the party continues to campaign on issues that have proved politically unfavourable after its 16 years in government.
Little change among smaller parties
Support for the smaller parties also remained largely unchanged. Mi Hazánk continued to hover around the parliamentary threshold, polling 5% among the voting-age population and 6% among committed voters. Both the Democratic Coalition (DK) and the satirical Two-tailed Dog Party remained on 1%.
The proportion of undecided voters fell slightly from 15% to 14%.
Have you heard? Research institute warns PM Péter Magyar risks ‘wearing himself out’
Voter enthusiasm eases
The survey also found a modest decline in voter enthusiasm. The share of respondents who said they would definitely vote dropped from 80% in June to 77% in July, although those saying they would probably vote increased from 7% to 9%.
Republikon suggested this may indicate that the post-election atmosphere is gradually giving way to more conventional expectations of governing, with attention shifting from political change itself to how the new government addresses Hungary’s economic and social challenges.
Another poll painted a slightly different picture
The latest findings contrast somewhat with an earlier survey by the Medián polling institute, conducted between 22 and 24 July for HVG. That poll indicated a slight decline in Tisza’s support compared with June, although the change remained within the margin of error.
Some commentators linked the minor shift to the so-called “Polgár affair”, though no direct causal relationship has been established. The survey nevertheless suggested that many Tisza supporters criticised the government’s communication on the issue and the absence of the promised public consultation.
Subscribe to receive every edition of our Hungary Insider newsletter directly in your inbox!
